New Hampshire Surveys Forecast Trump Majority on Tuesday

2024-01-21 08:44:33

Two polls out of New Hampshire show former President Donald Trump expanding his lead to double digits in Tuesday’s race.

In both polls, he’s at 50 or above.

A poll from CNN (a far-left conspiracy theory outlet that meddles in elections and spreads political violence) conducted by the University of New Hampshire shows Trump with a comfortable 11-point lead — 50 percent to 39 percent — over former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC).

What is most notable about the CNNLOL poll is Trump’s momentum. Earlier this month, Trump was only ahead of Haley by seven points, 39 to 32 percent.

Since that CNN poll was taken in early January, former Gov. Chris Christie (R-Smug) dropped out of the race, hoping to swing it to Haley. Since then, Haley did pick up seven points (32 to 39 percent), but Trump picked up 11 points (39 to 50 percent) and expanded his lead from seven to 11 points.

And so, like everything else that loser Christie schemes, it all went sideways.

Speaking of it all going sideways, Gov. Ron DeSantis earns just six percent support.

The CNN New Hampshire poll is an online survey of 2,348 adults taken January 16-19 with a two-point margin of error.

RELATED: Vivek Stumps for Trump in New Hampshire to Crowd Chanting “VP”


Oh, and CNN surveying adults instead of likely voters 48 hours before an election is just one of the reasons we call it CNNLOL.

Poll number two is of likely voters and comes from the ongoing Suffolk University/NBC10 Boston/Boston Globe tracking survey. Trump currently enjoys a whopping +17 point lead.

The tracking poll has Trump climbing to 55 percent support. Haley sits with 36 percent. DeSantis is doornail dead with just six percent.

In this same tracking poll, since Wednesday, Trump’s support has jumped from 50.4 percent support to 55 percent.

Haley’s support has also increased, but only from 33.8 percent to 36 percent.

This is a poll of 500 likely Republican primary voters conducted from Jan. 19-20 with a 4.4 percent margin of error.

Pamela Evette, South Carolina’s lieutenant governor, speaks during a campaign event with former U.S. President Donald Trump in Manchester, New Hampshire, US, on Saturday, Jan. 20, 2024. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty)

Over the last four days, Trump has increased his lead over Haley by only a single point — from 16 to 17 points — which is meaningless. What is not meaningless is Trump rising from just a smidge over 50 percent support to 55 percent support.

You see, a win is a win is a win, and 50 percent plus one teensy-weensy little vote is a win.

If these polls hold, the question is what happens next…

Let’s begin with the fact that the Haley campaign is undoubtedly seeing the same slippage in its internal polling, which is why the campaign has moved from We’re going to win! to Hey, we never said we would win!

As far as what’s next… Ron DeSantis is dead, okay? The fact no one has told him doesn’t change the fact. The DeSantis campaign will also be remembered as the worst presidential campaign launched by a major player in the history of the universe.


Will Haley march on?

Maybe, but into what future?

The next primary arrives on February 8. Polling out of Nevada is sparse, but the available polling shows Trump up from 30 to 65 points.

Then comes South Carolina on February 24. This is Haley’s home state and Trump is 30.2(!) points.

Granted, polling in both Nevada and South Carolina is scattered. Granted, much has changed since those polls were taken: Christie is out, and DeSantis has a fork sticking out of him. And granted, the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is now a two-person race between Haley and Trump. But if what we’re seeing in the New Hampshire polling is a national indicator, this is the lay of the land…Haley is gaining a little support while Trump is gaining more and sailing over 50 percent. And…

If I may be allowed to engage in a little cultural appropriation, 50 percent is the whole enchilada.

And now we get to the part where you buy my first and last novel…

Get a FREE FREE FREE autographed bookplate if you purchase John Nolte’s debut novel, Borrowed Time (Bombardier Books). 

I find myself reading less and less these days as all pop culture (books, movies, music) have degenerated into simplistic “content” that tries to beat you over the head with a message. That being said, I found … Borrowed Time to be refreshing and delightful with complex characters and a messy (re: authentic) world. Also, I have to commend you on your idea of what heaven looks like. Too many writers have a trite vision of heaven, but I found both versions of heaven that you came up with (Doreen’s version of heaven as a campground with the Arthurs and Mason version with Doreen and Hok’ee) to be true to those characters and sublime.  — Reader email.

After your purchase, email JJMNOLTE at HOTMAIL dot COM with your address and any personalization requests. 

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