Nevada is in play in November concerning the Senate! I wonder how the Republicans will mess this up.

Nevada Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen poured $14 million into new ads after polls showed her race tighten up to the point where The Cook Political Report moved it to “Toss Up.” Republicans have a shot in Ohio, Montana, Arizona, and now Nevada:

Democrats face an incredibly challenging 2024 Senate map that has them almost entirely on defense. While our three Toss Up races have remained constant and fairly obvious for some months now — Ohio, Montana and Arizona — we have mulled over whether any of the other competitive contests in the Lean Democrat column deserve a more vulnerable rating.

It’s quite possible all four could eventually move into the Toss Up column, reflecting even more peril for Senate Democrats. But as we look at the most recent polling numbers and trends in the presidential race, we now believe it is time for another Democrat to join the Toss Up ranks: Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen.

Nevada has been an interesting case study since 2020.

In 2022, Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto won her race with only around 8,000 votes. That same year, Republican Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo ousted incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak.

President Joe Biden defeated former President Donald Trump by only two points in 2020.

Thing is, the race is now a “Toss Up” but the state hasn’t even had it’s Republican primary for the Senate race:

The big picture: The Rosen campaign is placing the eye-popping advertising reservation as a contentious primary plays out on the Republican side.

• Republican Jeff Gunter, a former U.S. ambassador to Iceland under the Trump administration, has painted himself as the MAGA candidate in the race.
• But Republican Sam Brown, an Army veteran, has picked up the support of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, giving him institutional party backing.

Cook Political said it would “reassess” the rating if Brown does not win the primary.

However, the presidential race influenced the outlet as much as the Senate race. Nevada is a “Toss Up” in the rematch:

But what’s even more concerning for Democrats is where Biden’s numbers are in the state compared to Trump’s. Every poll this year has shown Trump ahead, with an even wider lead in a multi-candidate field — and remember that Nevada also has the option to choose “none of the above.” That was a difference-maker in the 2022 Senate race (with 1.2% of voters choosing that option), and in a close presidential contest featuring two unpopular nominees it could also have particular resonance. Post-State of the Union, an early March Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll did show a better result for Biden in a head to head; he only trailed Trump 44%-46%. A Wall Street Journal poll released Wednesday morning found Trump with a four point lead over Biden.

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